Nvidia's stock struggles as Kalshi traders bet chip prices are coming down

What happened

Nvidia stock is reacting to a new Kalshi prediction-market price for B200 hourly compute that is trending down. The rate stood at $4.22 as of June 21.

Context and impact

Historically, every drop in GPU compute prices has signaled excess capacity. If confirmed, Nvidia will have to argue volume growth (SpaceX, Groq, Reflection deals) offsets price pressure. For AI startups it's good news — inference may get cheaper by year-end. For Wall Street it's the first real data point on how to measure bubble risk.

Details

• Kalshi B200 price: $4.22/hr as of June 21
• Traders pricing in further declines through Q3
• Nvidia stock losing momentum despite the $6.3B Reflection deal
• Contradicts Bloomberg's tech-rally thesis from the same day
• Linked to Groq + Baseten inference overcapacity narrative